New Listings, Pendings, and the Post-Thanksgiving Reset
Today’s Monday Touch Point comes right on the heels of Thanksgiving, and the market data reflects the seasonal slowdown we expect every year. New listings fell to 449 for the week, which aligns with the holiday pattern, while pendings came in at 197—a number that’s soft but still workable when you zoom out to the broader trend lines. The new-listing-to-pending ratio for the month is sitting at 0.85, which means we’re outperforming 2022 and 2023 and staying competitive with last year even as this November brought more headwinds than momentum.
A few year-over-year signals stand out. New listings for the month finished slightly under November 2024—2,638 compared to 2,698—showing sellers pulled back. But price decreases rose sharply, with over 5,600 cuts this month, nearly 1,000 more than last year. The back-on-market count hit 593, the highest since January 2024, showing both buyer hesitancy and contract failures increasing heading into winter. The bright spot: active under contract outperformed last year, coming in at 1,514 versus 1,498, proving that motivated buyers are still stepping in even as the overall pace cools.
The Pendings Trend Line Breaks — A Shift Worth Watching
For five straight weeks, pendings were performing ahead of last year. But the last two weeks of November broke that streak. We’re now sitting roughly 100–120 pendings below last year’s pace, equal to a 10% year-over-year decline. This shift is meaningful as it signals a softening in buyer engagement heading into December. The ratio last year was 1.3 during this same week; today we’re tracking closer to 0.9–0.95.
The pendings pullback is showing up in the daily activity index as well. After touching 20% mid-November, the index dipped again but has clawed back to 20.5%. That’s still under equilibrium and keeps us firmly in the softening range for another month.
A Wild Two-Month Swing in Prices
The pricing story is the single biggest headline of this meeting. October delivered one of the best months in Austin real estate history, when average prices shot up 8.6% month-over-month— the strongest October in 25 years. That momentum raised confidence across the board.
But November reversed course quickly. The market saw a 3.2% month-over-month drop in the average price and a 22.4% decline in closed sales. Historically, only eight of the past 25 Novembers posted a gain, so a pullback isn’t unusual—but this one was on the steeper end of the range and signals a clear loss of purchasing power or urgency coming out of October’s spike.
Median price also dipped to $430,000, breaking the two-year November pattern of gains and pushing us back below the 20% peak-to-current decline mark. When we project the compound appreciation curve forward, if today represented the absolute bottom, Austin wouldn’t return to its May 2022 peak until roughly May 2031. That projection isn’t meant to predict the future—it’s simply a mathematical reminder that buyers waiting for “the peak to return” are waiting on a timeline driven far more by inflation than by market enthusiasm.
City of Austin vs. Suburbs: A New Reversal Emerges
One of the major structural changes this week is the sudden divergence between Austin and the suburban counties. After months of the suburbs carrying more of the price declines due to heavy new-construction competition, the script just flipped. The Austin city market is now showing deeper pullbacks than the suburbs in multiple metrics—average active price, average sold price, median sold price, and percentile analysis.
The higher-end segments inside Austin are softening the fastest. Meanwhile, suburban price brackets below the 30th percentile are showing relative stability. This reversal hasn’t happened in years and signals a shift in where demand is strongest and where inventory is over-weighted.
Inventory Pressure and the Softening Cycle
Inventory continues to build. Active listings across the MLS sit at 14,790—up 15.5% year-over-year. Months of inventory for the metro area is now 5.29, a 16.7% increase from last year. Some Austin zip codes—such as 78705, 78714, and 78701—are sitting at extremely elevated levels, while places like 78749 continue to operate with tight supply.
The activity index wrapped November at 17.6%, marking six straight months under 20%—the first time we’ve seen a run like this since 2010–2011. This is a meaningful indicator. It puts us in the same structural pattern as the early-stage and mid-stage phases of past corrections, where the market experiences false starts, brief recoveries, and renewed softening before true momentum returns.
Leasing Market Shows Clear Stress Signals
The leasing side mirrors the sales slowdown. Pending leases are down 17.9% year-over-year, even as new lease listings are also declining. Tenant quality is becoming more challenging, with more guarantors, tighter income ratios, and more marginal credit profiles creating friction for landlords. This is the first time in years where landlords are negotiating more than applicants.
National Indicators and What to Watch This Week
Freddie Mac’s latest data places Austin back at number one for year-over-year price decline among the top 40 U.S. metros at -7%. We’re also number one in month-over-month decline at -4.4%. Inflation-adjusted data shows Austin down 29.6% from peak—outperforming the 2008 national correction at the same point. It’s a sharp but historically consistent reset after a once-in-250-years pandemic spike.
This week’s economic calendar is heavy: Powell speaks tonight, ADP and inflation reports land Wednesday, and Core PCE arrives Friday. All of it will move rates. Next week is even bigger with rate decisions, CPI, and employment updates clustering together.
